Developed economies

　　Over the edge　
　
　　Oct 30th 2008

　　From The Economist print edition

　　AS RECENTLY as a month ago, there were still hopes that America and Europe might just pull back from the precipice of a recession. Those hopes have been dashed. The economies of the rich world seem to have fallen off a cliff. The question now is the height of the drop.

　　Central banks are trying to cushion the fall. On October 29th the Federal Reserve lowered its target for the federal funds rate to 1%, matching the trough it reached in 2003. It may cut again. With remarkable speed, worries have shifted from inflation, which is still around 5%, to deflation. Fed officials still think that, if even pessimistic forecasts came to pass, inflation would not fall below zero. But Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecaster, now reckons that core inflation will fall to 1.3% by 2010, too close to zero for the Fed’s comfort. They expect the Fed to cut the federal funds rate to 0.5% in December and then, with scant room for more cuts, that it may try to stimulate growth using unconventional measures such as further expanding its lending facilities to banks and other firms.

　　The rate cut was needed. America’s economic data have become starkly weaker since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in mid-September. The latest GDP numbers, released on October 30th, showed that output fell by an annualised 0.3% in the third quarter. Surveys of manufacturing activity have shifted down. Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits have shot up. A monthly index of consumer attitudes compiled by the Conference Board, a research group, plummeted to a record low of 38 in October, down from 61.4 in September.

　　Confidence surveys are unreliable predictors of consumer spending. But the destruction of wealth through falling stockmarkets and tightening credit conditions are already having an effect. On a seasonally adjusted basis, light-vehicle sales in September were the lowest since 1992, according to Autodata Corp, a research firm. On October 28th Whirlpool, an appliance maker, gave warning that low home sales would cut revenue and Royal Caribbean Cruises, a cruise operator, lowered profit estimates because of “a significant deterioration recently in new bookings”.

　　A similar downward lurch is under way in Europe, where the European Central Bank seems poised to cut interest rates for the second time this autumn on November 6th. The Munich Ifo Institute’s index, which measures the mood of German businesses, sank to its lowest level for more than five years in October. Volvo wins the prize for statistic of the crunch to date. The Swedish firm said it had received a mere 115 orders for heavy trucks in Europe in the third quarter, down by 99.7% on the 41,970 order bookings during the same period of 2007.
America and Europe cannot count on exports to make up for faltering domestic demand, because the crisis has spread to emerging markets. Airbus and Boeing, for example, had counted on orders of 300 aircraft from India in the next five years to help offset slower demand in Europe and America. Some of those are in jeopardy. Jet Airways, India’s largest domestic carrier, announced its biggest quarterly loss in more than three years on October 25th.

　　Economists disagree about how bad it will get. Dean Maki of Barclays Capital says that falling wealth tends to affect consumer spending over many years rather than right away. It is just the opposite with changes in real income because of petrol prices. Consumer spending could conceivably be lifted by the sharp drop in oil prices that has unfolded since July, which Macroeconomic Advisers estimates to be worth more than $100 billion on an annualised basis. Mr Maki notes that consumer confidence plunged after the September 11th terrorist attacks but that Fed rate cuts enabled interest-free loans which dramatically boosted car sales. Another small positive sign is that home sales rose slightly in September and that house prices have actually risen in a few cities.

　　These glimmers may be snuffed out by the unprecedented tightening in credit now under way. According to Ed McKelvey of Goldman Sachs, the only comparable modern precedent is the federal government’s short-lived imposition of credit controls in early 1980, which produced a dramatic downturn in American consumer spending. That episode ended when controls were removed. Today, credit restraint chiefly depends on how long it takes the private sector to respond to policy actions such as the Fed’s commercial-paper purchases and the widespread recapitalisation of weakened banks. “Government is working as hard as it can, but in the end it’s the private sector that does the lending,” he says.

　　翻译：yuvia

　　就在一个月前，人们还盼望着欧美各国能够从衰退的绝境中起死回生；而今，希望已完全破灭。各富裕国家的经济情况均摇摇欲坠，现在的问题只是将会摔得多惨。

　　各国央行纷纷推出举措减缓衰退。十月二十九日美联储将联邦基金利率下降至1%，再次采取和2003年一样的措施。利率还可能继续下调。以这种速度降下去，人们担心目前还在5%左右的通货膨胀将有可能转变为紧缩。但是美联储官方认为，即使悲观预测不行成真，通胀率仍不会降至零。但据宏观经济咨询公司估算，到2010年核心通货考试*大]膨胀率有可能降至1.3%，这已与美联储零的底线太过接近了。该公司预测，12月份美联储有可能将基金利率下调至0.5%；12月之后，由于下调空间不足，美联储可能将采取向银行和其他公司外借设备等非常规手段以保持经济的增长。

　　降低利率是必要的。自九月中旬雷曼兄弟公司破产以来，美国经济数据已明显呈现劣势。10月30日公布的最新GDP数据显示，第三季度产量按年率计算负增长0.3%。制造业活动调查急跌，每周初次申请失业救济人数激增。美国经济咨商局公布十月份消费者信心指数较九月的61.4点下降了整整38点。

　　消费者信心指数对消费支出的预测虽不可靠，但股票市场暴跌带来的财产损失和变差的信用状况确确实实造成了影响。在经季节性调整制度背景下，据汽车数据公司调查显示，轻型汽车销售量已于九月份跌至1992年以来的最低点。10月28日电器厂家惠而浦提出警示称国内销售下降必将减少财政收入。同日，皇家加勒比海游轮公司称由于“一项新订单中的重大损失”下调了利润估算。

　　欧洲也正面临着类似的下降局面。欧洲央行准备好于11月6日进行*考试&大秋季第二次利率下调。德国慕尼黑IFO研究机构编制的经济景气指数在五年多来于10月降低至最低。沃尔沃集团在此危机中受影响最为严重。这家瑞典企业第三季度仅仅接到欧洲115份重型汽车订单，较2007年同期的41970份下降了99.7%。

　　美国和欧洲不能靠出口来弥补岌岌可危的内需，因为危机已波及至新兴市场。空中客车公司和波音公司在未来五年内要靠印度的300个订单来抵消欧美市场减缓的需求。然而这笔订单也很危险。印度最大的航空公司捷特航空在10月25日刚刚公布了三年多以来季度最大损失报告。
经济学者对衰败前景观点不一。巴克莱资本的迪安·马基认为财富流失不会立即产生效应，而是会在未来数年内对消费支出造成持续影响。这于油价变化造成实际收入变化对消费支出的影响不同。自七月油价大幅跳水后居民消费如预料之中有所抬头，宏观经济咨询公司估计年增长约1000亿美元。迪安·马基指出，“九一一”后消费信心急降，而后利率下调贷款免息使得却增加了汽车销量。九月，部分城市房价上扬，而国内消费却小幅度有所增长，这也在一定程度上验证了这一预测。

　　然而，这一丝曙光也有可能被目前空前恶劣的信用状况扼*考试&大杀。高盛经济学家麦凯维提出，现代史上唯一一次可以与目前状况媲美的是上个世纪八十年代初期联邦政府短命的信贷税收管制政策，那一次造成了美国居民消费支出的显著下降。管制结束后，下降局面立即结束。而今，信用约束的作用主要取决于个人能够多快对比如商业票据购买、萧条银行的广泛资产重整等政府决策做出反应。“政府尽一切努力调整，但贷款终究是个人决策。”他说道。

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