原文、参考译文和权威点评，请参见昂立外语翻译阅读名师张娟Karen老师的博客：

http://blog.onlycollege.com.cn/686/viewspace-15173

convince 说服，使…信服

layman 门外汉，外行

excessive 过度的，过多的

skeptical 怀疑的= sceptical

radiation 辐射，放射

avert 避免，防止

prevailing 主要的，流行的，占主流地位的

原文如下，可自行翻译后对照上面链接给出的Karen老师的版本。

A majority of the world’s climate scientists have convinced themselves, and also a lot of laymen, some of whom have political power, that the Earth’s climate is changing; that the change, from humanity’s point of view, is for the worse; and that the cause is human activity, in the form of excessive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

A minority, though, are sceptical. Some think that recent data suggesting the Earth’s average temperature is rising are explained by natural variations in solar radiation, and that this trend may be coming to an end. Others argue that there is no conclusive evidence that modern temperatures are higher than they used to be.

We believe that global warming is a serious threat, and that the world needs to take steps to try to avert it. That is the job of the politicians. But we do not believe that climate change is a certainty. There are no certainties in science. Prevailing theories must be constantly tested against evidence, and more evidence collected, and the theories tested again. That is the job of the scientists.

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